Episode 50: The economic cost of the green card backlog

It’s Nov. 16, and this is episode 50 of the BAL Immigration Report.

• Lawmakers reach a deal to avert a government shutdown.
• The government publishes a regulation on additional H-2B visas.
• A new report estimates the economic cost of the U.S. green card backlog.

“Our central finding is that, if we were to hypothetically clear backlogs in the next year, we would see roughly $3.9 trillion of GDP gains over the next 10 years.”

—Jack Malde, Bipartisan Policy Center Senior Policy Analyst

U.S. news

Congress averts government shutdown

Lawmakers have agreed to a continuing resolution that will fund the government through early next year, averting a shutdown. The two-part spending bill will fund some federal agencies through Jan. 19, 2024, and others, including the Departments of State, Labor and Homeland Security, through Feb. 2.

A shutdown would have had serious consequences for immigration services, particularly those at the Labor Department. Congress must pass another spending measure to keep the government open beyond early 2024.

Additional H-2B visa allotments

The Departments of Homeland Security and Labor published a regulation to provide nearly 65,000 additional H-2B visas this year. The agencies had announced plans to do so earlier this month. Twenty thousand visas will be reserved for workers from Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti and Honduras. The remainder will be available to workers who have held H-2B status in one of the last three fiscal years.

U.S. news roundup

• The Department of Labor published updated H-2A and H-2B processing times.
• The State Department released the December Visa Bulletin, showing no movement in key employment-based categories.
• S. Citizenship and Immigration Services confirmed it would use Dates for Filing to determine filing eligibility.

Spotlight

Conversation with Jack Malde, senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center: the economic cost of the green card backlog.

BAL Immigration Report: Roughly 7.6 million people are awaiting a family- or employment-based green card, according to a new study from the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center, or BPC. Some of these individuals have submitted applications for green cards; others have had applications approved but are waiting for a green card to become available. This backlog has a clear human impact. It also costs the U.S. economy trillions of dollars, according to the BPC analysis. Jack Malde, a senior policy analyst at BPC who focuses on immigration and workforce policy, joined us.

Malde: Immigration is in the news quite a lot, but discussion is dominated by the border, by undocumented immigrants. What we wanted to do with this report was to bring this discussion to quite an underdiscussed but important topic, which is visa backlogs. Specifically in this report, we’re looking at green card backlogs — these are people who are waiting to receive green cards. The key objective of the report is to estimate the economic cost of the green card backlogs.

Our central finding is that, if we were to hypothetically clear the backlogs in the next year, we would see roughly $3.9 trillion of GDP gains over the next 10 years. That’s a really significant economic boost. It is over 10 years, but to put that figure into perspective, it’s roughly equivalent to the GDP of Germany. There’s a lot of economic benefits we could gain if we were to deal with this issue.

BAL: Malde said BPC reached its conclusion based on analysis that took into account individuals both in and outside of the United States.

Malde: We quantified the impact of both people coming into the country and people adjusting status within the country. We find that 99% of the benefit is from people who are entering the United States. These are people who are bringing skills and knowledge to our economy that can often complement the skills and knowledge of our domestic workforce. They not only allow us to be a more productive economy, but they also bring labor that we really need. We have growing workforce shortages that are only getting worse as our population ages.

The remaining 1% is from the adjustments of status for people currently inside the country. Obviously, there’s a lot more benefit from the immigration, but I would still emphasize that the adjustments of status have a positive impact, and it’s something that has been largely neglected by previous studies, so we thought it very important to include in our report.

BAL: BPC identified two main contributors to the green card backlog. First, there is a cap-based backlog tied to the number of green cards available each year under law. Second, there is a processing backlog based on a lack of resources and inefficiencies in government agencies. We asked Malde what types of policy changes could help.

Malde: One of the most effective things that can be done, which would have to be done by Congress, is to raise these green card limits. That would allow more people to get green cards every year, and it would help chip away at the backlog and stop it from increasing as fast as it currently is. The other key policy implication from our report is to do with the processing backlog. We need to give more funding to these agencies that are processing applications so that they can hire more staff and that they can improve their processes, for example, through digitization. Again, this could involve an act of Congress to appropriate more funds for USCIS and for the Department of State.

Those are the two key policy changes that would help deal with the backlog. And if I can just make one more very important point, it’s not enough to see just one of these policy changes. We actually need both of them in tandem. If we were to just raise green card limits without also increasing resources for processing, we may not see the backlog reduced very much. Similarly, if we were to just increase resources for processing without raising the limits, we wouldn’t be tackling the main driver of the backlogs, which are the restricted limits.

BAL: Unsurprisingly, the economic benefits of clearing green card backlogs would be most enjoyed by the states with the largest immigrant populations — California, New York, Florida, Texas and New Jersey. BPC says decentralized state-based visa programs could help distribute immigrants more evenly throughout the United States. Malde said that while the green card backlog is not often in the headlines, it has garnered some bipartisan attention in Congress.

Malde: There are members of Congress who are aware of this issue, and they are trying to deal with the problem. Earlier this year, we saw in the House of Representatives a bipartisan bill called the Dignity Act of 2023, which was introduced by Reps. Salazar and Escobar. The Dignity Act is a very comprehensive bill, but it does include a few provisions to try and address the green card backlogs. Firstly, it would say that, if an individual has been waiting for 10 years for a green card, they automatically receive a green card. There are actually quite a lot of individuals who wait well over 10 years. That’s one provision in the Dignity Act.

Another provision they have is they would actually exempt derivatives from the employment-based green card limit. To explain what that means, the 140,000 limit includes not only the principal person who is being sponsored for a green card but also their spouse and their children if they have them. The Dignity Act would exempt spouses and children from that limit. Essentially, that would enable more people to come in on employment-based green cards. This is a very pleasing development, and it’s nice to see bipartisan action on this issue. I would also say that the Dignity Act is seeing more and more co-sponsors every week. BPC is of was very pleased to see lawmakers working across the aisle on this issue.

BAL: “Green Light to Growth: Estimating the Economic Benefits of Clearing Green Card Backlogs” was authored by Jack Malde and his BPC colleagues, Theresa Cardinal Brown and Ben Gitis.

Global news

Future electronic Schengen visas

The Council of the European Union has adopted rules will allow individuals to apply for a Schengen visa electronically in the future. The new system will facilitate the creation of a visa application platform that will allow applicants to enter their data, upload electronic copies of travel documents and pay fees online. In-person appearances at consulates will only be necessary for first-time applicants. The launch date for the new system has yet to be announced.

GCC approves unified tourist visa

Gulf Cooperation Council member countries have unanimously approved the introduction of a unified tourist visa. The new visa will allow foreign nationals to travel across the six council member states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It is intended to increase convenience for travelers throughout the region. The unified tourist visa is expected to be introduced within the next two years.

Global news roundup

• Swedish authorities announced stricter rules for work permits in some industries.
• Kenya increased fees for work permits and other immigration filings.
• Employers in New Zealand are no longer permitted to use 90-day trial periods when hiring foreign nationals on accredited employer work visas.

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