Episode 55: The labor market outlook for 2024

Happy New Year, podcast listeners! It’s Jan. 4, and this is your BAL Immigration Report.

• The Biden administration pursues a crowded regulatory agenda for 2024.
• Passport processing times reach pre-pandemic levels.
• A look at what current economic trends mean for immigration programs this year.

“The market remains really tight. So we are seeing requests from recruiters that need to be turned around very, very quickly, and we’re also seeing a continued in interest in foreign talent because there are pockets of this skill set, particularly in the AI space, that you just can’t replicate.”

—Josiah Curtis, BAL Partner

U.S. News

Biden administration’s immigration priorities

H-1B modernization, fee hikes and changes to the green card process topped the Biden administration’s regulatory priorities on employment-based immigration in 2024. That’s according to the Department of Homeland Security’s semiannual regulatory agenda published last month. The administration also indicated it would propose changes related to certain nonimmigrants, including those who lose their jobs, in late 2024.

While the regulations would have a significant impact on immigration programs, they are at different stages in the rulemaking process, and policies are still being formulated. BAL will provide updates on individual regulations as information becomes available.

Passport processing times falling

The State Department recently announced that passport processing times have reached pre-pandemic levels. As of Dec. 18, processing times are now six to eight weeks for routine applications and two to three weeks for expedited applications, according to the department.

The decrease in wait times is welcome news, especially following significant delays over the summer. Wait times fluctuate with changes in demand, however, and travelers are urged to continue to prepare well in advance of planned international travel.

U.S. news roundup

• The Department of Labor opened the H-2B visa filing window.
• The government published updated information on Form I-9 and E-Verify compliance obligations.
• BAL is hosting an H-1B alternatives webinar on Tuesday, Jan. 23. For more information, visit com/events.

Spotlight

Conversation with Josiah Curtis, BAL partner: The jobs outlook for 2024 and what it means for immigration programs.

BAL Immigration Report: The U.S. Department of Labor will release the December jobs report this Friday, and while some analysts are predicting it will show slower growth than in November, the labor market remains strong overall. The Washington Post recently noted that the jobless rate has been below 4% for nearly two years, the longest such streak since the 1960s. In this environment, employers continue to face challenges in filling key positions. BAL partner Josiah Curtis joined the BAL Immigration Report to discuss his thoughts on the outlook for the coming year.

Curtis: I’m fortunate to be in a position where I represent companies across a wide swath of industries and have some benchmarking top of mind as far as how different industry segments are navigating this particular labor market and economic cycle. Obviously, reading the news, I’m no economist, but the general prevailing thought right now is that we may be on our way to the perfect soft landing, as it were, and that obviously has an impact on the labor market. It has not cooled as much as folks had feared, and in the tech space — particularly in the data science and AI spaces — we are continuing to see inordinately high demand for folks that have that skill set.

The interesting trend that I’m seeing in my own practice — where I happen to represent, again, companies across a wide swath of industry segments — we are seeing that some midsized players — not the big tech, proverbially — continue to benefit from the talent that’s available on the marketplace. Interestingly though, the market remains really tight. So we are seeing requests from recruiters that need to be turned around very, very quickly, and we’re also seeing a continued interest in foreign talent because there are pockets of this skill set, particularly in the AI space, that you just can’t replicate.

BAL: Demand for visas such as H-1Bs and O-1s remains high, a trend Curtis expects to continue in 2024.

Curtis: I just don’t see that changing in 2024. It’s going to remain relatively hot, with the obvious understanding that some industry segments have been impacted differently by these macroeconomic trends, and they may be going through rightsizing or reorganization, which of course we’re helping clients with as well. In the aggregate, though, I would say it looks pretty solid and strong throughout the year.

BAL: Curtis says companies are recruiting the best and the brightest, regardless of whether employees require a sponsorship.

Curtis: The thing that excites me about working with our clients every day, honestly, is that it’s the talent and the skill set that the company is looking for, and that doesn’t respect borders. Continuing to pursue the talent itself, regardless of where that happens to be physically located at the moment or whatever immigration restrictions we may need to navigate in order for the company to onboard and land that person. These are highly valuable, coveted positions that employers are looking to fill, that compensation levels are typically substantial, and we see the demand for these workers not really cooling off at all. If anything, I think it’s accelerating, particularly in the AI space, and it is a key part of an organizational strategy, a talent strategy. It’s not just an immigration question, it’s “What does our business need?” — which is a question our clients are really driving when they ask us, “How are we going to land this talent?” It’s “Here’s a business problem, and here’s a person that we think can solve that business problem for us.” And again, international workers and folks that require sponsorship here in the U.S. are and will continue to be a core part of that strategy at the organizational level for our clients.

BAL: We asked Curtis to discuss some of the concerns employers have about sponsoring foreign workers, particularly for companies that do not have large immigration programs.

Curtis: Obviously, it would depend on the specific candidate and nature of the role that’s offered to the person. But oftentimes, we hear clients express concerns with respect to government filing fees and the overall cost of the sponsorship of a worker to fill a role. I always find that it’s important to couch that and benchmark it against what the costs are — hidden or not hidden, seen or unseen, in other words — that you’re otherwise incurring. So if you have a role that’s open for 180 days, and that role is critical to the establishment of a new product that the company is planning to roll out or the support of an existing product that you’re looking to weave AI into, the cumulative cost of not having the right person in that role significantly outweighs the couple thousand dollars that it might cost, for example, to sponsor somebody for an H-1B application. And so, again, I do think it largely hinges on cost. Sometimes there can be concerns about the process and the procedure, particularly for companies that don’t do this a lot, where they need to learn a new thing, they need to identify a resource internally within their HR group who might be able to own this process, in some cases, even have a manager who’s tasked with owning this for their particular business segment. Those things, though, are really subordinate to the business question that we’ve been talking about here, and that is, you need the right person in the right job and holding open a role for months and months and months has costs and administrative burdens that usually far outweigh the navigation of that sponsorship process.

Global news

Bulgaria and Romania join Schengen area

The EU Council has unanimously decided to accept Bulgaria and Romania into the Schengen area. Beginning March 31, air and maritime border controls will be lifted between the two countries and current Schengen member states. The council will decide at a future date when to end entry restrictions at internal land borders.

The addition of Bulgaria and Romania to the Schengen area comes after 12 years of negotiations. Both countries joined the EU in 2007.

UAE suspends visa transfer option

The government of the United Arab Emirates has suspended the employment sponsorship visa transfer option across free zones. Companies can no longer apply for employees to transfer visas from one free zone to another. Instead, they must follow standard immigration processes, which add steps to the visa application process. Employers should expect longer processing times and additional fees with the new procedure. Authorities haven’t announced if the suspension is temporary or permanent.

Global news roundup

• The EU Council and Parliament reached a deal on a new single permit directive.
• South Korea launched a digital nomad visa for remote workers.
• Danish authorities updated income requirements for work permit holders.

Follow us on X, and sign up for daily immigration updates. We’ll be back next week with more news from the world of corporate immigration.